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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still