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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.